IATA: war in the Middle East knocked down air travel demand in May
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released data for May 2026 showing that global demand for air travel fell 2.2% year-on-year, a decline IATA Director General Willie Walsh attributed to the war in the Middle East. Excluding the Middle East, demand would instead have risen 0.7%.
According to the IATA press release, total demand measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) in May 2026 was 2.2% lower than in the same month of 2025. Capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), fell 2.3% year-on-year. Despite this, the load factor reached 83.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from last May and a record for the month.
- RPK decline (total)
- -2.2%
- RPK excluding Middle East
- +0.7%
- ASK decline (capacity)
- -2.3%
- Load factor
- 83.5% +0.1 p.p., record for May
International traffic saw demand fall 1.6%, whereas excluding the Middle East it would have grown 3.1%. Capacity on international flights dropped 2.4%, and the load factor reached 83.7% (+0.7 p.p.). Domestic traffic fell more sharply, by 3.1%, with capacity down 2.1% and the load factor slipping to 83.0%, 0.8 percentage points below last year.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in the press release that the May demand decline was concentrated mainly among Middle Eastern carriers, where demand fell 28.4% year-on-year. However, he noted this was a marked improvement over April's 46.6% drop, which he called a sign of the region's resilience.
Walsh added that demand contraction also appeared in North America and Asia, driven mainly by conditions in the domestic markets of the US and China. He said that despite high fuel and ticket prices, overall May demand was fairly resilient. He described the recent sharp drop in oil prices as encouraging, but warned that the war's effects are likely to persist, since oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain and it will take longer for lower oil prices to feed through into jet fuel prices. He added that airlines operating on a 2.0% margin will continue to need to test demand resilience with higher ticket prices to cover increased fuel costs.
International markets by region
- Asia-Pacific: demand rose 1.3%, capacity fell 1.1%, load factor 85.3% (+2.0 p.p.). In Vietnam, tighter jet fuel import restrictions led to a significant cut in short-haul capacity and a decline in intra-Asian international traffic.
- Europe: demand rose 3.8%, capacity rose 2.3%, load factor 85.4% (+1.2 p.p.). Direct traffic to Asia grew 15%, which IATA describes as a continuing shift towards direct connections between the two regions.
- North America: demand rose 1.0%, capacity rose 0.6%, load factor 84.0% (+0.4 p.p.).
- Middle East: demand fell 28.8%, capacity fell 24.3%, load factor dropped to 76.1% (-4.8 p.p.). According to IATA, the effects of the war in Iran continue to heavily weigh on year-on-year comparisons, though they are easing month-on-month, with the pace of decline roughly half that of April.
- Latin America: demand rose 10.5%, capacity rose 9.0%, load factor 85.0% (+1.2 p.p.).
- Africa: demand rose 8.9%, capacity rose 8.3%, load factor 73.4% (+0.4 p.p.).
For domestic traffic, IATA says China recorded the steepest decline, which may be linked to higher ticket prices and the Dragon Boat Festival falling in June this year. The United States also posted a sharp drop, while most other tracked domestic markets grew at a modest pace.
IATA notes in its editors' notes that it represents more than 370 airlines accounting for around 85% of global air traffic, and that all figures given are preliminary and may be revised as further data become available. According to the association, domestic RPK made up about 37.2% of the total market in 2025, with the six domestic markets included in this overview accounting for 29.6% of global RPK and 79.4% of all domestic air traffic.