IATA: Middle East conflict hit air cargo market in March
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released data for March 2026 showing global demand for air cargo fell 4.8 percent year-on-year, due to severe disruptions at key Gulf hubs caused by the war in the Middle East. Capacity supply also declined, while other regions largely maintained growth.
According to IATA data, global demand for air cargo, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), fell 4.8 percent year-on-year in March. Among international carriers the decline was even steeper, reaching 5.5 percent.
Available capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), also fell, down 4.7 percent overall and 6.8 percent in international operations.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the decline was driven mainly by serious disruptions at major Gulf hubs caused by the war in the Middle East, with the timing of the usual post-Lunar New Year slowdown also playing a part. However, he said underlying demand trends remain strong, and revised trade and GDP forecasts from the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund still point to growth in 2026.
Walsh added that air cargo networks are so far providing the flexibility needed to keep global supply chains running as they adapt to geopolitical tensions, tariffs and operational constraints. He said the industry's resilience will be tested in the coming months mainly by developments in supply and fuel prices.
- Demand (CTK)
- -4.8% YoY
- Capacity (ACTK)
- -4.7% YoY
- Jet fuel price
- +106.6% YoY
- Oil price
- +43.1% YoY
- Refining margins
- +320%
- Manufacturing PMI
- 51.4 points
- Middle East share of CTK
- 13.2% (2025)
According to IATA, global industrial production rose 3.1 percent year-on-year in February, marking the 38th consecutive month of growth, while global merchandise trade increased 8.0 percent year-on-year.
Jet fuel prices rose sharply in March, up 106.6 percent year-on-year, accompanied by a 43.1 percent rise in oil prices and a 320 percent jump in refining margins.
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 51.4 points in March, remaining in growth territory though slightly lower than in February. Similarly, the new export orders index reached 50.1 points, which IATA says signals favourable conditions for air cargo demand.
Performance by region
- Asia-Pacific: demand rose 5.4%, capacity rose 5.0%.
- North America: demand fell 1.2%, capacity fell 1.1%.
- Europe: demand rose 2.2%, capacity rose 4.2%.
- Middle East: demand plunged 54.3%, capacity fell 52.4% – the weakest performance of all regions. The region accounted for just 13.2% of the global CTK market in 2025, ahead of only Latin America and Africa.
- Latin America and the Caribbean: demand rose 1.8%, capacity rose 5.1%.
- Africa: demand rose 7.0%, the strongest of all regions, though capacity fell 4.6%.
According to IATA, performance also varied by trade route. The Africa-Asia route grew fastest, followed by the Asia-Europe link, with intra-Asian trade also performing strongly. In contrast, routes connected to the Persian Gulf were severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The source also includes a table with year-on-year growth by route, though specific figures for individual routes are not given in the published text.
IATA represents more than 370 airlines, accounting for around 85 percent of global air traffic, and its statistics cover both international and domestic scheduled cargo operations by member and non-member airlines alike.